Chinese EV makers face billion-dollar tariff challenge in Europe

The European Commission is preparing to announce new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), a move that could dramatically impact the global EV market. With provisional tariffs expected by June 5, both China and Europe are gearing up for negotiations that could soften the financial blow for Chinese automakers and ensure continued market access for European carmakers.

These tariffs, potentially adding billions of dollars in new costs for Chinese EV manufacturers, could significantly impact their exports to Europe, the world’s third-largest economy. Analysts estimate that every additional 10% tariff on Chinese EVs, on top of the existing 10% levy, would cost China’s EV exporters around $1 billion based on 2023 trade figures. As Chinese EV makers expand their exports to Europe, these costs are expected to rise even further.

Chinese EV companies, including industry giants BYD, SAIC, and Geely, face substantial hurdles due to the ongoing European Commission investigation into subsidies. The investigation could result in additional duties ranging from 9% to 26%, which might be applied retroactively for the past three months.

In response, China is considering several countermeasures. These include increasing tariffs on large-engine European car imports to 25% and potentially lowering tariffs on EU auto imports to 10% from the current 15%. The China Chamber of Commerce to the EU has voiced concerns about the investigation, arguing it demanded information that was impossible for Chinese automakers to provide. This includes details about suppliers like CATL, the world’s largest battery maker.

Both sides are motivated to reach a deal. China needs profitable exports to Europe to offset declining margins at home, while German automakers are keen to maintain access to China’s vast auto market and benefit from EV partnerships that drive down production costs. Last year, nearly 29% of cars produced by German automakers were sold in China.

Chinese EV manufacturers are also investing heavily in Europe. For instance, BYD is constructing an EV plant in Hungary and considering another in Europe. Xpeng has recently entered the French market, and Nio has opened a showroom in Amsterdam. Furthermore, CATL is boosting its battery production in Europe, with other Chinese battery suppliers contributing to France’s burgeoning “battery valley.”

During a visit to China in April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz advocated for lowering Chinese auto import tariffs rather than escalating trade disputes. He was accompanied by CEOs from Mercedes-Benz and BMW, who emphasized the importance of handling Chinese competition constructively.

The stakes are high as both sides navigate this complex trade relationship. A joint venture between Stellantis and Chinese EV maker Leapmotor exemplifies how established automakers are adapting to the evolving landscape. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares, who once supported higher tariffs on Chinese EVs, now advocates for a more integrated approach, signalling a shift in strategy amid the intensifying trade tensions.

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