US-Iran peace deal: Why Emirates, Qatar are slashed to 40% capacity despite the ceasefire

A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is finally here. World leaders want to stop the 2026 Iran Crisis. They hope this pause will help open the Strait of Hormuz and let oil move again. But don’t expect cheap flights yet. Experts say the damage to Middle Eastern aviation hubs is deep, and it will take a long time to fix.

Why the Prices Stay High
IATA chief Willie Walsh is not happy. He told Reuters it will take “months for fuel prices to stabilize.” This is bad news for your wallet. Airlines are paying way more for fuel, and they are passing those costs to you. You might see higher ticket prices and even bigger bag fees. Walsh explained that “it will take months to get back to where supply needs to be.” This is because the war hit oil refineries hard.

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Empty Skies and Grounded Giants
The famous “Big Three” airlines are playing it safe. Qatar Airways has grounded its entire fleet of eight Airbus A380 planes. They won’t fly again until at least June. Emirates has also pulled the A380 from 15 major routes. Right now, Emirates is only flying at 70% of what it used to. Qatar is doing even worse at just 40%. Because the ceasefire is only temporary, these airlines are not rushing to change their plans.

A Surprise Winner in India
While the Middle East waits, India is seeing some “green shoots.” Shares in the airline IndiGo jumped 11% after the news. Indian planes had to take very long paths to avoid the war zone. Now, they might be able to fly shorter routes again. Before the war, there were 350 flights a day between India and the Middle East. That number fell to around 80 in March.

The Long Road Ahead
Even with a break in the fighting, governments haven’t changed their travel warnings. Airspace is still restricted. For the Indian aviation market recovery to really happen, the peace needs to last. Until then, jet fuel price volatility will keep your travel plans grounded and your tickets expensive.