Car buyers may need to brace for steeper car prices as discounts vanish, inventories shrink, and looming tariffs threaten to add costs across the industry, analysts warn.
Average new car prices rose 2.6% in August compared with a year earlier, the biggest jump since April 2023, according to data from Autotrader. Industry experts say that trend is unlikely to reverse soon.
“Except on a few models, big discounts will be increasingly hard to find,” said Brian Moody, executive editor at Autotrader. He noted that while automakers may offer modest markdowns on 2025 models to make room for 2026 arrivals, new tariffs and tightening supply could wipe out much of those savings.
President Donald Trump’s plan to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% could trigger price hikes “nearly immediately,” warned Alcoa Corporation CEO Bill Oplinger in a televised interview. The costs would ripple from cars to everyday goods such as canned food and beverages.
For car shoppers, the one bright spot is the electric vehicle market. Federal tax credits—up to $4,000 for certain used EVs—are still available until September 30. After that deadline, new purchases will no longer qualify for the incentive. A 2024 Nissan Leaf priced at $17,000, for example, could cost just $13,000 after credits.
“Many dealers will move those cars while consumers are still interested,” Moody said. “If someone wants a good deal, a qualifying used EV could be amazing value.”
But timing is critical. Inventory across U.S. dealerships has fallen more than 6% from a year ago, said David Greene, principal analyst at Cars.com. Vehicles are selling faster, which reduces the pressure to offer big discounts.
“Once outgoing 2025 models are gone, shoppers should expect to pay more as tariffs and limited supply push prices higher,” Greene said. “Moving sooner rather than later could mean savings.”
Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, echoed that view, saying automakers are cautious. “They recognize that consumers are financially stretched and don’t want to risk losing sales or market share,” she said. Still, she warned, “shoppers should expect automakers to be cautious in how they manage pricing and incentives.”
The average U.S.-built vehicle now costs around $53,000, according to Edmunds, making affordability a growing concern for households. For many buyers, delaying purchases could mean paying significantly more.
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