Tesla Inc. is betting on moderate delivery growth in 2024, but the unorthodox Cybertruck pickup could be its make-or-break factor, analysts suggest. The company, which delivered a record 1.81 million vehicles in 2023, faces growing competition and economic headwinds as consumers pivot towards hybrids over all-electric options.
“Tesla’s lineup is aging, and high borrowing costs are pushing buyers toward cheaper alternatives,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at AutoForecast Solutions. Tesla has been countering the slowdown with aggressive incentives, including discounted leases, low-cost financing, and free perks like three months of fast charging for new buyers.
Yet, demand for the highly anticipated Cybertruck appears to be falling short. Tesla initially promised a $40,000 price tag, but launch versions now start at $75,000, with premium options reaching nearly $100,000. “Full-size truck buyers are traditionally conservative,” Fiorani added. “The Cybertruck’s polarizing design isn’t resonating as strongly as expected.”
A Softening Market
U.S. registrations of Tesla vehicles dropped 7% year-over-year by October 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility. Cybertruck registrations also declined, from 5,428 units in August to just 4,039 in October, totaling 31,451 so far. Analysts at Bernstein project sales could end the year at 50,000—a far cry from initial expectations.
Tesla has adjusted its strategy, moving from reservations to direct orders and even offering Cybertrucks for immediate delivery. Leasing prices have been cut twice, from $999 to $899 per month, further signaling demand struggles. “When you see deals like these, it often reflects softening demand,” said Tom Libby, associate director at S&P Global Mobility.
Used Cybertrucks are also piling up, with average selling times ballooning from 27 days in May to 75 days in December, according to CarGurus data. “The longer they sit unsold, the more prices drop,” said Kevin Roberts, CarGurus’ director of economic and market intelligence.
Future Growth Hinges on Execution
CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious goals include a 20-30% sales increase in 2024, fueled by a cheaper version of existing models and expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi program. However, analysts warn these technologies may take years to mature.
While the Cybertruck has garnered attention with its bold, stainless-steel design, challenges in production scalability and demand remain significant. Musk has cautioned about “enormous challenges” in making the Cybertruck cash-flow positive.
Investors are closely watching Tesla’s next move, as the automaker prepares to announce 2024 delivery figures in January. For now, the company’s prospects rest on whether the Cybertruck can defy the odds—or if it becomes Tesla’s Achilles’ heel.
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