Global petrol demand growth is expected to halve in 2024, impacting refinery margins in the second half of the year. This slowdown is driven by a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) in China and the United States, as well as a return to normal consumption patterns following the bounce-back in demand seen last year after the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, global petrol demand is projected to increase by 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, reaching 26.5 million bpd. This growth rate is significantly lower than the 700,000 bpd increase seen in 2023. China is nearing its peak transport fuel demand, while the U.S. has already surpassed it.
“The penetration of electric vehicles has been increasing in the U.S. and China,” said Sushant Gupta, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “For this year, Chinese demand will only grow by 10,000 bpd due to higher EV uptake.”
Rystad Energy estimates global gasoline demand to be around 26 million bpd in 2024, up approximately 300,000 bpd from the growth of about 700,000 bpd seen in 2023. This growth was fueled by a consumption boom after the pandemic, according to analyst Mukesh Sahdev.
China is expected to account for more than half of all EV sales globally in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Gasoline consumption in China is forecast to grow by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tons, to 165.1 million metric tons (3.8 million bpd) in 2024, as per forecasts by a research arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
The research arm of Sinopec, China’s largest refiner, expects gasoline demand to rise by 1.7%, or about 3 million tons, to 182 million tons in 2024. The share of electric cars sold this year could reach 45% in China, 25% in Europe, and more than 11% in the United States, according to the IEA.
In contrast, booming car sales, along with high economic growth and low EV penetration, are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia. India’s petrol consumption is expected to reach a record 39.2 million tons (908,000 bpd) in the year to March 2025, up about 5% from the previous year.
In the U.S., gasoline consumption fell to about 376 million gallons per day (8.94 million bpd) in 2023 after reaching a record high of 392 million gallons in 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand in 2024 is expected to remain flat.
As a result, U.S. refining margins are likely to remain under pressure after the peak summer driving season, analysts said. In Europe, gasoline demand is forecast to grow by 50,000 bpd or 2.3% in 2024 to 2.19 million bpd, according to FGE.
Stagnant European petrol demand and rising competition from Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery, the largest in Africa and Europe, which could add 280,000-300,000 bpd of gasoline to global balances, will put European refining margins under pressure, Wood Mackenzie said.
Gasoline margins in the United States and Asia have increased by 85% this year, reaching about $29 per barrel of WTI crude on May 1, and by 29%, reaching about $13 per barrel of Brent crude on April 30, respectively, according to LSEG data. Margins gained strength earlier this year due to scattered refinery outages in Asia and the U.S., as well as higher freight costs due to attacks on Red Sea shipping and Russian energy infrastructure, which supported European gasoline markets.
Eurobob gasoline was worth around $23 per barrel of Brent crude on May 1, up from an average of $19.67 in April last year, the data showed.
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