The automaker power shift: Who’s winning the U.S. market so far in 2025?

As the dust settles on the first half of 2025, a clear reshuffling is underway among U.S. automakers. GM, Toyota, and Ford are pulling ahead in market share, while Tesla, Stellantis, and VW are rapidly losing ground.

According to Cox Automotive, GM grew sales by 12.1% year-on-year, selling over 1.43 million units in H1 2025. Toyota followed closely with a 5.5% rise, while Ford jumped 6.9%, thanks to improved inventory and a rebound in ICE and hybrid sales.

In contrast, Tesla’s H1 sales fell 15.2%, down to 258,268 units, and its market share dropped to just 3.2%. VW and Stellantis suffered similar fates with 11.4% and 12.7% declines, respectively.

“The top performers got their supply chains and pricing right,” says Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive. “The rest are paying the price for strategic missteps.”

Why the winners are winning

GM and Ford were quick to diversify their offerings, balancing EV innovation with strong ICE and hybrid sales. Toyota’s hybrid lineup, bolstered by affordability and reliability, also proved crucial.

Ford’s Q2 alone saw a 22.5% jump in sales compared to Q1, showing strong momentum heading into the summer. GM continues to dominate in fleet sales and incentives, leveraging economies of scale.

Tesla’s struggles and the EV plateau

Tesla’s drop is the most symbolic. Once dominant in EV headlines, the automaker is now facing pricing pressure, rising competition, and leadership distractions. Its sales declined despite an expanding EV market and growing infrastructure.

The market is asking hard questions. Has Tesla peaked in the U.S.? Is it losing the everyday buyer to more affordable alternatives?

Meanwhile, VW and Stellantis appear bogged down by tariff impacts, lagging model updates, and weak dealer confidence.

What it means for the rest of 2025

If trends continue, 2025 could be a defining year for market reshuffling. Brands like Hyundai and Honda are holding steady, while others face existential questions. For consumers, the power shift could mean more competition, better incentives, and faster EV-hybrid integration. For investors, it’s a signal: innovation must be backed by consistency.

And for Tesla, 2025 may be the wake-up call it didn’t expect.

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